The burger category has been the backbone of U.S. QSR for decades. But the newest data paints a troubling picture: burger traffic is slipping while chicken, coffee, and Mexican QSR concepts are gaining share.
📊 The Numbers
According to Harmelin Media (2025), burger chains saw visits decline by ~3% year-over-year, while coffee (+4%), chicken (+6%), and Mexican (+5%) all posted growth.
Placer.ai’s location intelligence reveals the same structural weakness: McDonald’s was one of the few burger brands to experience flat-to-slightly positive visits in Q2 2025 (+0.8%), but most of its peers saw erosion. Even chains adding new stores couldn’t escape a drop in visits per location.
And The Food Institute has flagged sustained headwinds for burger operators: rising labor costs, inflationary pressure on beef, and shrinking promo effectiveness.
🔴 Why the Outlook Is Red
Even with remodel programs, tech investments, and splashy menu launches, most burger brands are fighting uphill:
Traffic erosion is a structural issue, not a seasonal one. The slide isn’t one bad quarter — it reflects consumers shifting habits toward chicken, coffee, and hybrid menu brands.
Expansion isn’t rescuing performance. Opening new units doesn’t offset weaker traffic at mature stores.
Margin pressure is intensifying. Wages, food costs, and discount fatigue eat into profitability.
Hype ≠ durability. Menu flings, digital rollouts, and remodels add costs, but ROI is inconsistent.
Brand loyalty cracks. If guests test-drive competitors a few times, they may not come back as “burger-first” customers.
Bottom line: The red flag isn’t about an extinction-level collapse, but about the probability of weaker returns across the category.
🟢 Why Some Are Green (or at Least Resilient)
Not every burger brand is getting sacked:
McDonald’s: Holding the line with slight positive traffic (+0.8% Q2 2025, Placer.ai). Global scale and menu diversity hedge risk.
Regional “cult” favorites (e.g., Culver’s, Freddy’s): Operate with tight efficiency, loyal fan bases, and smaller footprints — less exposure to churn.
Burger + hybrid brands: Those offering chicken, coffee, or beverage plays alongside burgers can balance the mix.
These aren’t marketing wins — they’re operational fundamentals resisting the bleed.
Our Closing Thoughts…
Most teams can win a game on hype, a trick play, or a hot streak. But what wins championships? Fundamentals: defense, consistency, execution.
In 2025, too many burger chains are playing for headlines — remodel announcements, new tech, bold menu drops — without proving they can move the chains week after week.
Verdict: 🔴 Red outlook. The burger sector still has stars, but the field overall is slipping.
The burger segment isn’t collapsing tomorrow, but the cracks are visible.
👉 Subscribe to No Bullsh*t Franchise Reports today and get our free Guiding Lights Playbook — the exact questions every franchisee wishes they had asked before signing. Stay ahead of the hype and protect your capital!
