Every week, the headlines look shiny.
“40 new stores opening in Florida.”
“New leadership team promises a comeback.”
“Parent company rebrands to launch multi-brand platform.”
It’s exciting stuff. But headlines don’t pay your debt service, and they don’t guarantee same-store sales. Operators and investors know the truth: not every rocket reaches orbit.
The Problem With Hype
Franchisors and media love to talk about:
Units opened.
New franchise deals signed.
Private equity money raised.
But what actually matters? Stability and profit over time.
That’s where our Guiding Lights framework comes in.
🧭 The Pressure Test Framework
When you see hype, here’s how to pressure test it:
1. Growth vs. Stickiness
Hype: “100 units opened last year.”
Test: How many also closed? Net growth is what counts.
2. Average vs. Quartiles
Hype: “Average AUV = $1.6M.”
Test: What’s the bottom quartile doing? If it’s $700K, most operators are struggling.
3. Margin Reality
Hype: “Sales are growing.”
Test: What’s EBITDA at maturity? A $2M unit at 7% margins is weaker than a $1.5M unit at 18%.
4. Operator Stability
Hype: “New franchise deals are rolling in.”
Test: What % of operators stick around 5+ years? Churn tells the real story.
5. CapEx Cycles
Hype: “We’re rolling out a fresh new look.”
Test: How much will that remodel cost? And how often is it forced?
🔍 Case Study: Wayback Franchising’s “Hubspoke Brands”
Recently, Wayback Burgers rebranded its parent company as Wayback Franchising and announced a new platform called “Hubspoke Brands.”
Why it looks like a rocket:
Sounds like growth: multi-brand, bigger infrastructure, more opportunities.
Appeals to investors: The word “platform” typically implies scalability.
How to pressure test it:
Are Wayback’s core units strong and consistent across quartiles?
What’s their closure and transfer rate in the last 3 years?
Can a smaller chain truly provide the back-end support required for multiple brands, or will operators end up stretched too thin?
💡 Takeaway
Headlines are designed to pull you in. That’s marketing’s job.
But operators can’t afford BS.
The real job is to pressure test: margins, churn, quartiles, tenure, and remodel cycles. That’s how you separate rockets that burn out from systems that actually reach orbit.
👉 Get started today by analyzing any brand with our Guiding Lights principles.
And if you want the exact 21 questions real operators use, feel free to download the Free Playbook.
Wishing you the best in cutting through the noise — and spotting the headlines that truly deserve a green light.